ABSTRACT
The Kuomintang (KMT) suffered back-to-back defeats in national elections in 2016 and 2020. The KMT’s decline stems from the long-time ruling party’s deep-seated problems with two main factors: a leadership crisis that began in 2000 and the party’s inability to craft a policy toward mainland China that can appeal to a majority of Taiwan’s voters. Trends in public opinion that culminated in the 2014 Sunflower Movement revealed the depth of popular skepticism about economic integration with the mainland. Even 2018’s “Han Wave” (the swell of support for Han Kuo-yu, who would become the party’s 2020 presidential candidate) which lifted the party’s fortunes for a time, was not enough to overcome the KMT’s persistent problems. Despite its troubles, KMT strengths and features of Taiwan’s politics suggest that the KMT might recover.
