ABSTRACT
This chapter researches the chances of making a good labour market forecast with a newly developed model of the Frisian labour market. The province of Fryslân is not only associated with the fact that its population has an own language, it is also often associated with a problematic economic situation. The chapter presents a short description of the region, considers some effects of the economic structural changes for Fryslân and describes the construction methodology and content of FREM, an economic model for Fryslân. Fryslân has indeed a long lasting history of an unemployment rate that is above the national average. Through the years, employment growth has been below the national average. In historical simulations, FREM outperforms by a wide range the naive random walk model, which assumes constant growth rates. This margin declines when the FREM-simulations are compared to the results of the regional share model, which assumes equal regional and national growth rates.
