ABSTRACT
NO: Other social, economic and political factors are nearly always more important
The impact of climate change on violent conflict and human migration is complex, multi-dimensional and extremely context-dependent. While causal relationships between these phenomena are not implausible, they currently lack sufficient empirical support and sound theoretical foundations. Existing studies on the issue often use problematic datasets. Concepts such as environmental peace-making, migration as adaptation and human immobility, all of which undermine assumptions about climate-conflict and climate-migration links, are rarely considered. We illustrate these arguments by showing that despite the coincidence of drought, internal migration/displacement and protests prior to the onset of the Syrian civil war in 2011, claims about a causal link between these phenomena are premature. Such securitisation of climate change can have counterproductive policy implications by deflecting responsibility for climate change, conflict and migration, and by marginalising climate justice.
