ABSTRACT
This chapter presents a way to understand the counterintuitive dynamics of the increase of prison overcrowding in Colombia as the result of the long-term dynamics of a social system whose boundary includes the reaction of society to crime through harsher punishment. It utilizes system dynamics both to organize knowledge and as tool for building a simulation model for identifying key systemic aspects in order to propose concrete actions for improving such situations. The chapter provides a system dynamics simulation model that helps to explain the dynamic hypothesis and serves as a tool for exploring and designing policies intended to tackle prison overcrowding. It explores two types of policies: First, punitive policies, which include limits on preventive detention – and therefore fewer accused prisoners and wider access to prison benefits; both lessen reinforcing feedback and boost negative feedback of key material delays. Second, preventive policies, such as new or better preventive programs that strengthen crime control feedback.
