ABSTRACT
This chapter offers the four partial explanations of the 1992 outcome: the "its the economy, stupid!" hypothesis, the "rally 'round the flag" hypothesis, the "electoral punishment for war" hypothesis, and the "end of the Cold War" hypothesis. It highlights some of the leading external or "foreign policy" hypotheses regarding the American electoral outcome. The "rally 'round the flag" hypothesis stipulates that public opinion will shift positively in support of leaders when their country is confronted with the abrupt appearance of an external attack or threat. Clearly, American rally effects come and go and can be subject to quite rapid decay. During the American Civil War, Abraham Lincoln generated more electoral support during the war than just before it broke out. Even the demise of the Cold War, though it does not seem to have played a direct role in the 1992 election, may have contributed in several indirect ways to the electoral outcome.
