ABSTRACT
The modern history of China—from the overthrow of the Qing Dynasty and the establishment of the Republic to the completion of the communist takeover of the mainland in 1949 and the resultant flight of the Nationalist government to Taiwan—seems to lend some credence to this thesis. Four countries were divided shortly after the Second World War: East and West Germany, North and South Korea, North and South Vietnam, and Taiwan and Mainland China. In the 1990s, Taiwan established the Strait Exchange Foundation, or SEF, and Mainland China set up a counterpart agency called the Association of the Relations Across the Taiwan Strait, or ARATS, as intermediary bodies to handle cross-strait exchanges. In the 1990s, the pace of change in cultural and economic exchanges accelerated. An economic relationship developed across the Taiwan Strait. The more China is able to advance political and economic links, the less likely it will resort to a military option.
