ABSTRACT
The demand for minerals and metals recorded in the past decades (Chapter 3) will continue, driven by multiple interrelated factors: demography, urbanisation, the development of the global middle-class, public and corporate policies (including the global transition towards a more circular and low-carbon economy) and by innovation.
Three empirical scenarios are presented, evaluating the trending demand for selected minerals and metals of major importance to the global economy up to 2050. The fast pace of innovation makes it impossible to provide an outlook up to 2050 for minor metals such as cobalt, gallium, germanium, lithium, individual rare earth elements, and rhenium. Their main uses are related to specific technologies, such as batteries, lighting technologies, permanent magnets or semiconductors which are most likely to change greatly in the period up to 2050.
The transition towards a global more circular economy offers numerous opportunities for a reduction in the demand for primary minerals and metals extracted from a mine but nevertheless the demand for primary minerals and metals will continue to grow exponentially. While the scarcity of geological resources does not appear to be a matter of concern, major sustainability issues, including social issues, may constrain the future supply of minerals and metals. This calls for the rapid development of global mineral resources governance, and of a new global level playing field for minerals and metals, integrating the economic, environmental, governance and social dimensions of sustainable development.
