ABSTRACT
This chapter explores the five White Paper scenarios from a foreign and security perspective. Each scenario offers a snapshot of limited, mid-range and ambitious options the EU could undertake in reducing, consolidating or expanding its role respectively as a regional or even global player. Appraising the scenarios on their own merits reveals interesting opportunities by which EU institutions and member states alike could fundamentally undo, redo or redouble the scope and depth of its diplomatic, security and defence initiatives. Much rests upon the goodness of fit between the scenarios themselves and the nature of the geopolitical challenges beyond the EU’s borders, and the socioeconomic pressures within the EU. Whether hypothetical, probabilistic or even purposive modes, the choice of any scenario or model like those outlined in the White Paper ultimately rests on an understanding as to whether they are foreign policy ends in themselves, or a tactical means to a more strategic end.
