ABSTRACT
In the run up to the UK’s formal withdrawal from the EU on 31 January 2020, the prospect of leaving led to many (more than 30) ex-ante studies on the potential impact of Brexit on UK agriculture. These were produced by and for various organisations and displayed a diversity of approaches. Some covered Brexit from specific angles, such as the implications for food prices or farm wildlife, while most focused on the impact on primary agriculture and the incomes of farm businesses. Four main impact factors were commonly identified: (1) the shape of national domestic agricultural policy after Brexit; (2) the trading relationship negotiated between the UK and EU; (3) the treatment of migrant labour; and (4) the regulatory framework, but not all the studies considered all four. Few contained original quantitative work. The three main studies that did so gave broadly similar results for primary agriculture and were in line with economic theory, features which gave a degree of confidence to their outcomes. Scenarios were employed that focused on interim estimates for extreme positions (such as “crash out”, or complete trade liberalisation). Particular attention is given to the updated results generated in 2019 that took into account the outline of intended national agricultural policy declared by the Conservative government during the preparation of legislation that became the Agriculture Act of November 2020, which introduced a progressive reduction of direct income support, and other statements about access to migrant labour in agriculture and horticulture. These 2019 results also contained a scenario for a trading relationship that turned out to be close to the final UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement, concluded on Christmas Eve 2020 and subsequently ratified by both the parties. Together, they enable a comparison of Brexit with the status quo of remaining in the EU and its Common Agriculture Policy, at least during the first few years.
