ABSTRACT
Because of their low water requirements, small millets are recognized as important assets for climate change adaptation in India. This study investigated the mechanisms by which small millets may support the food security of producer households under increasing drought risks in eastern Madhya Pradesh through a scenario modelling exercise. The model was developed as a series of linked equations defining household production, consumption and storage of rice and millets, which are the two major staples of the focal region. Three investigations with the model explored how household food security and the proportion of millets in the diet were affected under increasing levels of drought risk and different: (1) yield values in good and bad years, (2) areas allocated to small millets vs. rice, and (3) percent improvements in millet yield. The results revealed that long storage times of minor millets have a critical food security role. Low yields limit the benefits of millets in replacing rice as a climate change adaptation strategy. However, fairly modest improvements in millet yield enhance their contribution to household food security. Millets provide a source of food from marginal soils that provides a fallback for food security. The limitations of the model are also discussed.
