ABSTRACT
This chapter explores the connections between military expenditure, arms transfer and armed conflicts. As there is a dearth of theoretical work on this topic, we propose a possible mechanism linking military expenditures to armed conflicts: the economic military cycle. It shows how military spending might lead to or facilitate conflicts by illustrating the process of militarization and arms build-up of a society. The methodology we use in this work is quantitative analysis with panel data, which captures the time evolution of military expenditure, arms transfer and armed conflict data for all available states. The main objective of this research work is to carry out statistical analyses to relate military expenditure and arms transfer to each other and to the intensity of armed conflicts (minor armed conflicts and wars). We aim to assess to what extent military spending leads to an increase in the intensity of armed conflicts, and to assess the linkage of the volume of arms transfers with the escalation of armed conflicts. First, we will see the relationship between military expenditure and arms transfer. Second, we will consider the link between military spending and armed conflicts. And third, we will analyse the relationship between arms transfer and armed conflicts. Our data shows a strong relationship between military expenditures, arms transfer and armed conflicts, and therefore, we believe that reducing military expenditures and arms exports would lessen the use of military force in conflicts.
