ABSTRACT

This chapter explores the effects of various policy measures applied in global trade wars, in a combined way using the GTAP mode. The results indeed confirm an overall positive effect on the countries other than those that have increased tariffs, along with a negative effect that is negligible for some and prominent for others. Particularly if production capacity in USA cannot be ramped up quickly to substitute imports that have been cut off due to tariff hikes, there may be an overall negative effect. Furthermore, the negative effects of the trade wars may be muted to some extent by aggressive trade integration in several economies simultaneously.