ABSTRACT
This chapter explores the potential ramifications of state instability for the global system and regional subsystems, the implications of these possible linkages for regional and global security, and areas where a capacity for early warning may help avoid some of the more dire consequences of this linkage. International crises can be classified according to those that unfold in the context of a protracted conflict, and those that occur as more isolated eruptions. A protracted conflict is characterized by hostile interactions that extend over long periods of time with sporadic outbreaks of open warfare fluctuating in frequency and intensity. The instability-crisis nexus can also be viewed from the perspective of the state as actor. Ethnic wars are episodes of violent conflict between governments and national, ethnic, religious, or other communal minorities (ethnic challengers) in which the challengers seek major changes in their status.
