ABSTRACT
The uncertainty-of-outcome hypothesis (UOH) – the idea that fans tend to attend games with less certain outcomes more than they attend games with more certain outcomes – represents a key concept in sports economics. Recent theoretical research shows that the UOH emerges from a model of fan attendance decisions under uncertainty when fans possess reference-dependent preferences (RDP) and that even with RDP, these models do not generate predictions consistent with the UOH if fans have RDP and loss aversion. This area of behavioral sports economic literature contains several competing models and a substantial body of closely linked empirical research. This chapter undertakes a critical review of this literature with a goal of providing future guidance for research in this area.
