ABSTRACT
Many arms controllers seem to regard ‘deterrence’ as an inviolable quantity, as dependable in a crisis as the sun rising every morning. This chapter explores some ways that deterrence can break down during a crisis; the implications of this upon future disarmament agreements; and some suggestions for broadening our nuclear policy so as to make deterrence more stable and less susceptible to factors beyond the conscious control of decision-makers. The operational aspects of deterrence include the need to designate against whom the threat is made, under what conditions the threat will be carried out or withdrawn, what military capabilities are available to carry out the threat, and whether the threat of nuclear attack is credible or not. Most strategies of deterrence are based upon the existence of well-protected second strike forces. Both the United States and the Soviet Union maintain and constantly upgrade these forces.
