ABSTRACT

Much of the commentary following President Trump’s surprise electoral victory focused on white, lower middle-class, and less educated voters as key voting blocs in his coalition. This analysis misses the larger undercurrent of a rural-urban divide in the electorate that has steadily evolved over several presidential cycles, making Mr. Trump its most important beneficiary to date. Rural voters voted against the changing values of American life as they are depicted, accepted, and celebrated in metropolitan centers. For the Democratic Party, having monopolized the concentrated metropolitan vote and secured a strong position in the suburbs, the opportunity and necessity exist to make inroads in rural areas. The party could break through the current identity politics with policy agenda amenable to rural voters. Indeed, they must do so. As long as rural America sees itself under siege by the unfamiliar and alien force of urban America, identity voters can continue for some election cycles to hold off metropolitan majorities at the polls.