ABSTRACT
One common model, at least in the popular mind, is intelligence as hero. A few stolen secrets or a series of satellite photographs provides the information allowing us to foil the enemy's plans. The opposite model is that of intelligence as villain. The argument is that most of the state's policy failures can be attributed to failures of intelligence. While bad intelligence can sometimes ruin a policy that would otherwise succeed, only to some extent can good analyses compensate for weaknesses at other stages of the policy-making process. The state's goals and animating values are beyond the purview of intelligence. Only rarely will intelligence challenge the basic premises and comerstones of the state's foreign policy. The Cuban missile crisis provides a striking example of intelligence providing crucial political analysis that directly guided decision-making. The implication of much intelligence is that there are severe limits to the state's influence; decision-makers want to know what they can do to influence the situation.
