ABSTRACT
The finding that motivation is a more important source of aggression than opportunity suggests a corresponding shift in the focus of our efforts to prevent aggression. Recent evidence of the extent to which the Soviets see their Western border as permeable is provided by their insistence that television coverage of the Pope's visit to Poland not be broadcast in northeastern Poland because it could then be picked up in Soviet Lithuania. Economic problems in Eastern Europe will almost certainly have political consequences, as the current troubles in Poland make apparent. Developments in Central Asia probably pose a long term threat to the very survival of the Soviet Union. Economic growth in the 1980s faces even greater obstacles. The preceding analysis, while critical of deterrence, should not be construed as a call for the renunciation of that concept. Deterrence can make a positive contribution toward regulating conflict.
