ABSTRACT
This chapter addresses not the super powers, nor Australia in particular, but is directed to the medium and smaller military powers. The defence policy-maker has to avoid being either over-optimistic or over-pessimistic; he may learn from past trends, but he must do more than speculate on the future. An assessment of no identifiable threat indicates that greater emphasis should be given to developing long lead-time equipment and skills, at the expense of a high state of operational readiness. In summary, in formulating a defence policy, one should assess one's strategic circumstances, identify the degrees of threat which may have to be faced, and analyze enduring features and national interest. In conclusion, the development of defence policy and refinement of force structure options is a complex and demanding process. A comprehensive and well structured strategic assessment, encompassing the theme of this book, provides the basis for such policy development.
