ABSTRACT
This chapter proposes to account for the credibility of anticipation fictions and the effects they can produce. Insofar as, for these fictions, credibility is also expressed in terms of probability, it begins by retracing the evolution of the epistemological function of fictions since the emergence of the modern scientific meaning of probability in France and in England in the 1660s. It then proceeds to examine the anticipation experiment conducted by the “Red Team” collective in France since 2019, as a case study for the credibility of near-future fictions.
