ABSTRACT
Nuclear technology and know-how played a dual role for the Koreas ever since both were exposed and given access to them during World War II. While both Koreas first began embarking on the nuclear energy path for peaceful purposes, over time, their strategic calculations were impacted by their understanding of the atomic bomb’s destructive power and strategic value, as regarded by major nuclear-weapon states, and the geopolitical circumstances. The current composition of a nuclear North Korea and non-nuclear South Korea will likely persist for the foreseeable future unless inter-Korean and geopolitical factors dramatically shift strategic calculations in one or both countries. Potential outcomes could be triggered by any of the following four general scenarios over the next two decades: 1) a permanent nuclear North Korea and the state of the US extended nuclear deterrent; 2) China’s strategic future; 3) a denuclearized North Korea; and 4) the fate of nuclear energy in South Korea and Japan. Changes in the two Koreas’ respective policies will have implications for the region and the world.
