Hindsight bias

Hindsight bias describes the phenomenon that, in hindsight, we tend to exaggerate what we had known in foresight. This inflated confidence that we knew the solution or outcome all along has been shown in numerous studies and represents a robust finding. In this chapter, we first describe the phenomenon of hindsight bias in more detail and how it is typically assessed. Next, we present an overview of empirical findings and a typical hindsight-bias experiment that can be used as a classroom demonstration, before we finally move to a discussion of theoretical explanations and applied perspectives. As cognitive explanations, either memory impairment (recollection bias) or a biased rejudgment process (reconstruction bias) might be responsible for hindsight bias. Hindsight bias cannot be avoided intentionally and may have dramatic consequences in several applied domains such as legal, political, economic, medical, and everyday decision-making.