ABSTRACT
Reading the chapter based on the CSDS-Lokniti surveys conducted in the three states in the north-eastern region tells us that contrary to popular perception, the controversial Citizenship Amendment Bill might not have been a major determinant of voting preferences in the region in the 2019 elections, this despite there being fairly high levels of awareness about the Bill and opposition to it by non-BJP parties. Apparently, this opposition did not translate into any significant anti-BJP or anti-NDA sentiment when it came to voting in the election. In Manipur, the BJP won a sizeable proportion of votes of those opposed to the Bill on both seats in the State, winning one and coming second on the other. In Nagaland, the victorious BJP-backed NDPP candidate garnered a greater share of votes among those opposed to the Bill than those in support of it. In Meghalaya, although the BJP fared poorly overall, it got nearly as many votes among those who opposed the Bill as those who supported it thus indicating that CAB was not the main consideration of voters while voting. The authors conclude that more than the CAB controversy, local level factors such as the personality of the contesting candidate, performance of the state government and pre-existing tribal and ethnic fault lines seemed to have mattered far more to voters. The Modi factor, which was as a key explanatory variable in the rest of the country, also seemed to have mattered less in these three states. In fact, the survey data suggested that it was not a factor at all with most voters in the three states rather wanting Rahul Gandhi as the would-be Prime Minister. It thus appears, the authors observe, that there was incongruence in people’s opinions and their actual voting choice.
