ABSTRACT
The so-called “Alliance Law” was enacted on March 13, 2018. Among many important amendments it introduced to the Election Law, perhaps the most important ones were regarding the formal pre-electoral alliances and related changes in how votes will be translated into seats. Shortly after the law's enactment, first the incumbent AKP, MHP, and BBP, then the main opposition CHP, IYI, SP, and DP announced the formations of two electoral alliances and contested the June 24 Parliamentary Election as part of them. Based on a number of simulation exercises that employ precinct-level data from the general elections since 2015 and aim to account for the changes in electoral institutions due to the April 2017 referendum and the Alliance Law, and increased numbers of electoral districts and members of the Turkish Parliament, this chapter investigates how the People's and Nation's Alliances had influenced the alliance and non-alliance parties' seat shares, and whether and, if so, how the electoral and legislative outcomes would differ in alternative scenarios. Several implications of the electoral alliances and examined institutional, constitutional, and statutory changes for the future of Turkish politics in terms of representation, disproportionality, and quantity and quality of party policy offerings are discussed in the concluding section.
