ABSTRACT
The surging rate of homicide in the United States, especially involving guns, that emerged at the beginning of the 2020s decade has many Americans characterizing the bloodshed as an epidemic. Many worry that the scourge of homicide, particularly those perpetrated by juveniles, will persist, or even worsen, in the years to come. A review of trends in juvenile violence over the past half century will, however, provide some perspective on today’s crime levels. In this chapter, I look back to a time when the rate of juvenile violence was considerably higher than it is now. In the process, I detail my own work during those years in tracking and forecasting trends in juvenile violence, as well as my involvement in the debate about how to respond to the rising tide of juvenile homicide. In the process, I also explain why I have declined to apologize for any lasting negative impact that my crime forecast, which turned out to be erroneous, had on the punishment of juvenile offenders.
