ABSTRACT
In presenting the Intelligence Community’s assessment of Iranian nuclear intentions and capabilities, the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE)thoroughly reviews all available information on these questions, examines the range of reasonable scenarios consistent with this information, and describes the key factors the people judge would drive or impede nuclear progress in Iran. This NIE focuses on the following key questions: What are Iran’s intentions toward developing nuclear weapons? What domestic factors affect Iran’s decision making on whether to develop nuclear weapons? What external factors affect Iran’s decision making on whether to develop nuclear weapons? and What is Iran’s current and projected capability to develop nuclear weapons? This Estimate does assume that the strategic goals and basic structure of Iran’s senior leadership and government will remain similar to those that have endured since the death of Ayatollah Khomeini in 1989.
