ABSTRACT
This chapter analyses the urban development of mega-programmes in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) in the past three decades and draws upon the experiences in other Asian cities. These are joined to address the central question: what would be a likely future for Thu Duc—the newly established city in HCMC? There could possibly be two opposite directions. On the optimistic side, there is potential for HCMC to achieve its ambitious goals as Seoul and Shanghai did. On the pessimistic side, there is probability for HCMC to fall into its problematic past—or what Jakarta and Manila have experienced. The structure of the municipal government and the aim to establish Thu Duc are significant matters for the future of the new city and HCMC. There has been a persistent desire for HCMC to follow the model of ‘cities within a city’. However, there is little evidence to prove that Thu Duc would become a strategic development focus and help HCMC to deal with its chronic issues of inefficiency and ineffectiveness in urban development initiatives. It seems hard for HCMC to avoid its path dependence, and Thu Duc's future seems very unpromising.
