ABSTRACT
Population as a policy variable has recently come more sharply into public debate. Recent publications on resource allocation issues and on priorities in health care, and the advent of a National Health Service (NHS) planning system have all highlighted its importance in the construction of policy. Population forecasts are renowned for their inaccuracy. Planners, on the other hand, prefer accuracy and certainty. For them a range or a number of estimates is too problematic given the other information inputs to the planning process, with similar problems of inaccuracy and uncertainty. As with population forecasts judgement and interpretation are the essential components. Several methodological issues involved in making predictions have been discussed with particular relevance to population forecasting. Population as a factor in the utilisation and provision of health care has been assuming unprecedented attention within the NHS.
