ABSTRACT

This chapter examines the future of irregular and unconventional warfare. It first defines key concepts, including Unconventional Warfare, Irregular Warfare and Hybrid Threats. Using these definitions, the chapter then offers an overview of trends in unconventional conflict to include the adaptive response by irregular actors to western conventional dominance since 1991, the explosion of electronic connectivity since the turn of the century and the re-emergence of great-power competition in the last decade. It explores how these trends intersect with the wider context for future warfare in terms of technology, terrain, demographics and political drivers of conflict. It examines irregular and unconventional warfare aspects of future great-power competition, and explores aspects of Russian and Chinese approaches to irregular warfare, drawing on recent conflict in Ukraine and elsewhere. Finally, the chapter identifies implications for practitioners and policy-makers in the Irregular Warfare and Unconventional Warfare arena, together with key conclusions on the adaptations that will be needed to address the future character of this form of warfare.