ABSTRACT
This chapter explores the future of intelligence as a key function in providing situational awareness, explanations, predictions and strategic anticipation to support decision-making, and also considering its counterintelligence/counterespionage and covert influence operations missions. It examines technology as a major driver of change in intelligence and shows how technological developments in the fields of artificial intelligence, machine learning and automation are called to play a key role in the future of intelligence in peace and warfare. The chapter holds the view that research and innovation projects for intelligence and decision-support systems will lead to new competitive edges in technological capabilities against adversaries, but that it is the combination of technological, conceptual/processual and organizational innovations that has the greater potential to produce disruptive changes in future warfare and intelligence. It discusses transformation processes in intelligence and tensions that can shape the future of intelligence and counterintelligence. It argues that conflict will be increasingly waged in the information environment and the cognitive domain, and future warfare will permanently demand a role for intelligence in this regard.
