ABSTRACT
Regardless of the political situation or the de jure state of hostilities, there are regular and persistent cyber-attacks against critical infrastructure. Intelligence organizations, military cyber units, state-run advanced persistent threat (APT) groups and other actors with a range of motivations keep trying to establish a foothold in their adversaries’ networks, in order to exfiltrate data or disrupt their current or future operations. Much of this activity will never see public scrutiny. One could even argue that the victim of a truly successful cyber-attack of this nature is never aware of the attack, instead blaming their apparent misfortune on mistakes of their staff or accidental failure of their technology. This chapter explores conflict in cyberspace in a broader scope, including armed conflict, as well as conflicts involving states that remain below the armed conflict threshold. Additionally, the chapter explores some non-military aspects of conflicts that have a significant effect on the cyber capabilities, such as technological sanctions and supply chains. The chapter ends with a look at the future of cyber conflict, should some long-expected technological breakthroughs materialize in the coming years.
