ABSTRACT
The case of the Belarusian economy has puzzled many scholars for years. Belarus was often referred to as a transition outlier, given its fast recovery in 1996 and spectacular growth prior to the global financial crisis without much transformation of its economy. Three decades after gaining its independence, state control of the economy remains considerably high. Subsidised financing of state-owned enterprises allowed them to preserve production capabilities over the first decade, achieve some productivity gains in the late 1990s–early 2000s, and avoid social destabilisation. However, with a delay in structural reforms, this economic model, also heavily dependent on Russian subsidies and foreign debt, has become fatigued, driving the economy into stagnation in the 2010s. The COVID-19 pandemic, the 2020 post-presidential political crisis and Russia's war in Ukraine put further strains on the economy, calling for change. This chapter gives a brief overview of the Belarusian economic developments before the 2020 presidential election to have a better understanding of how various rigidities of the Belarusian economic model have amplified the detrimental effect of the political unrest on the economy and the Belarusian society in general. It also discusses the anti-crisis and economic reforms Belarus will have to undergo to recover and stabilise.
