ABSTRACT
Crisis events in the form of epidemics, credit crunches, and fires, among others, were an integral and regular part of late medieval urban life. In the case of Old Warsaw, they occurred every four to five years (fires every eight years), but their interweaving meant that townspeople actually experienced them on average every two years, but there were rare periods of several years of collapse. Such a high frequency of crises and their short duration set the economy into a sine wave motion with clear rebounds in the economic activity of the bourgeoisie during periods of one to three years without a perceptible crisis. Notably, however, such a rhythm of economic life did not stymie the chances of economic or population growth in the decades to come. The high intensity of crises certainly slowed down the pace of development; yet, provided that their severity did not result in the death of a significant percentage of the population and the growth factors were strong enough, the town still had a chance to thrive. In the case of Warsaw, the key factors were its position as a major trade centre in the region, the development from the late 14th century of long-distance trade (mass timber and grain rafting to Gdańsk and Toruń) and becoming the main ducal seat in Mazovia. This created favourable development prospects that regularly attracted people to the town, which provided the labour force and expanded the demographic reservoir necessary for Warsaw to increase its population and further expand its role. As we have seen above, post-epidemic compensation in Old Warsaw took a few to a dozen or so months. Thus, it seems that the prospect of economic development is one of the main factors creating and sustaining such growth. Its absence fostered economic stagnation or even regression.
