ABSTRACT
Based on an algorithm-processed “Foresight Strategy Cockpit” (FSC) trend-and key-factor-analysis of transnational terrorism, a multitude of potential future scenarios that may evolve from each key factor are identified and described. Such analysis contains likely manifestations, the degree of impact and the overall probability of each scenario. In a subsumptive process, a trend scenario has been generated. The trend scenario “Hybrid Jihad” is rooted in the combination of the seven most likely projections for the next five years. Hybrid Jihad is a system based on operative simplicity, tactical practicability and both effectiveness and efficiency from a terrorist network's or individual perpetrator's perspective. Its underlying rationale is that jihadists increasingly seek tactical and operative success by reducing complexity. A leaderless, loose franchise network and bandwagoning-dynamic is the core organizational structure. Islamist cross-border cooperation provides tactical flexibility, interoperability and supports clandestine preparations prior to projection of terrorist violence. Current forms of hybrid radicalization add to this phenomenological scheme. The subsequent transfer of communication, planning and plotting to the virtual (i.e. digital) sphere opens a wide range of tactical potential along the entire value chain of jihadist violence. For the next two to five years this will systemically constitute the most probable trend scenario for Islamist terrorism in the West.
