ABSTRACT
Following the Taliban's overthrow of the Ashraf Ghani government in August 2021, Afghanistan is again becoming a safe haven for terrorist groups. U.S. and other Western intelligence agencies assess that al-Qaeda and ISIS-K will likely have the ability and willingness to conduct external attacks over the next one to two years, including in the West. The terrorist threat emanating from Afghanistan is caused by at least two factors. First, the Taliban government has close ties to several terrorist groups, including al-Qaeda. Second, Afghanistan is a failing state—a general prerequisite for a terrorist sanctuary—with a collapsing economy, dire humanitarian situation, and weak Taliban government. To deal with this challenge, the United States and Europe need to develop a more effective over-the-horizon capability to collect intelligence and counterterrorist groups operating in Afghanistan before the next attack.
