ABSTRACT
Timothy Lenton identifies an array of concepts and methodologies from environmental science that are well suited to the study of historical collapse. Concepts like resilience, positive and negative feedback loops, tipping points, system identities, stable states, and ball-in-valley (or basin) models are applied critically to the study of human societies. Linking some historical collapses to past climate events and conditions, Lenton also works to dispel the myth that recorded human history has been marked mostly by a stable and predictable climate. Instead, he shows how past civilizations had to overcome turbulent climatic challenges during the Holocene, and that, paradoxically, climate stressors have served as catalysts for both the origin and downfall of complex societies, depending on the case. Looking forward, Lenton advocates for more thorough study of the feedback dynamics present in historical collapse cases and argues that more rigorous modeling of these feedback mechanisms could unlock insights relevant to our modern challenges.
