ABSTRACT
59Taiwan has become Asia’s most dangerous flashpoint. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February has further raised concerns about a potential conflict over the island. For the remainder of the 2020s, however, a Taiwan conflict is more likely to erupt by accident than design, highlighting the need for more robust crisis-management and -avoidance mechanisms. Towards the end of the decade, Beijing’s confidence in its capacity to prevail in a conflict over Taiwan will start to grow as key military balances begin tilting in China’s favour, undermining the United States’ ability to credibly commit to Taiwan’s defence, with dire implications for the island’s security prospects. https://s3-euw1-ap-pe-df-pch-content-public-p.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/9781003336112/c5ee45f6-e22a-492b-9855-d32a10653759/content/fig_pg_58.jpg" xmlns:xlink="https://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"/> An aerial view of the Pratas Islands in the South China Sea, 27 July 2020 (Gallo Images/Orbital Horizon/Copernicus Sentinel)
