ABSTRACT
The Syrian conflict has been among the most devastating and destructive of the twenty-first century. This paper analyses key issues for economic recovery and explores post-conflict alternatives that might promote peace and stability. We first argue that economic conditions were not the primary cause of the uprising and that a fundamental cause was the lack of significant political reforms and the ensuing collapse of the social contract. We then discuss the profound socio-economic and political change brought about by the conflict, as a stepping stone for reconstruction. In the third part of the chapter, we examine policy options for post-conflict security and economic recovery. We identify a viable path forward involving an iterative approach focusing on second-best options, whereby development assistance should target activities that restore livelihoods through entry points in specific sectors, thereby helping ordinary people to rebuild their lives and reduce the impetus to migrate. Donors and the regime would have to agree on mechanisms for vetting implementing partners, monitoring progress, and responding to violations in agreements. In the absence of a viable settlement, we recommend a less ambitious sector-based approach that would contribute to positive development outcomes in the short run, supported by process-oriented implementation mechanisms that would build institutional capacity and open the way for realizing more sustainable and inclusive outcomes in the long run.
