ABSTRACT
The Bolsonaro government was, by any measure of public policy evaluation, the worst post-redemocratisation government. Despite everything the country went through between 2019 and 2021, Bolsonaro was almost re-elected, which probably would have had an irreparable cost for Brazilian democracy and the progressive public policies developed since the end of the country's authoritarian military regime (1964–85). This chapter argues that a combination of three factors contributed to the defeat of Jair Bolsonaro by only a narrow margin: on the one hand, the poor performance of the federal government in the development of public policies coupled with the incumbent running against the popularity of a former president with two highly evaluated terms acted to reduce the president's chances of re-election; on the other hand, the economic recovery in 2022 amplified by manipulation of the electoral legislation made the incumbent, considered certain to be defeated a year before the elections, become a competitive candidate.
