ABSTRACT
Until Lula's two stints in the presidency (2003–10), presidents operated in Brazil in a constrained political system characterised by constitutionally strong presidents, relatively strong checks and balances and media, robust federalism, and hyper-fragmented party systems. “The strong president equilibrium” shifted towards a weaker form of executive dominance, in which the legislative and judicial branches were empowered. Will Lula's third stint in the presidency manage to shatter this equilibrium? Probably not. There is nothing to suggest an institutional crisis in the near future. Nonetheless, Lula is a centre-left minority president facing a large majority conservative opposition in the legislature and a much-empowered judicial branch. His attempt to build a broad front Cabinet has failed because centrist parties that were key to Lula's victory are underrepresented: a mismatch that will be a source of governability issues in a deeply fractured polity and challenging economic environment.
