ABSTRACT
This chapter provides one of the most important tests of the territorial explanation of war. It tests the key proposition that territorial disputes are more likely to go to war than expected by chance and that they have a higher probability of escalating to war than policy or regime disputes. The territorial explanation of war maintains that territorial issues are a fundamental underlying cause of interstate wars in the modern global system since 1495. Territorial issues can be regarded as an underlying, as opposed to a proximate, ‘cause’ of war because they do not directly bring about war in the sense of being a sufficient condition for war. If territory is as important as the explanation claims, then it would be expected that states that have territorial issues that result in militarized disputes, especially if they recur, should have a higher likelihood of becoming involved in war than would be expected by chance.
