ABSTRACT
This chapter discusses the character of Middle East peace diplomacy, especially the US role in that diplomacy, and then to draw out some modest policy-relevant implications for the United States in the near term. The prospect for indigenous local progress toward peace in the near term is dim. The Syrian regime is apparently about to begin a difficult period of leadership transition. The regime is in any case so narrowly based on the Alawis that dramatic, unpopular initiatives are unlikely even if Syria were inclined—which is doubtful—to move toward peace under an American aegis. The Lebanese can do nothing important without Syrian permission. Progress hinges on Jordan, a country whose leadership may be inclined to be more flexible than its situation permits. The constraints on Jordanian policy are a consequence of three related conditions. Washington periodically turns its gaze upon the Middle East with highmindedness and high ambition as if by reflex.
