ABSTRACT
Russia’s 2024 presidential election, though still three years away, now dominates the country’s political landscape. Two things are already clear. Firstly, the election will take place in difficult conditions. Russia’s economy is more stagnant, its politics more repressive and its relationship with the West more adversarial than at any time since President Vladimir Putin took office. Secondly, the ‘administrative resources’ of the Russian state can nonetheless manage and manipulate the election to deliver another handsome victory. But will Putin run? The answer reveals much about Russia, the political dynamics of the wider region, and the relative strengths and weaknesses of authoritarianism and democracy.
