Secret Intelligence and Public Diplomacy in the Ukraine War

Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine was shocking, but few could claim to have been truly surprised. Leading NATO powers had been publicly and privately warning of such an event for several months, even going so far as to suggest the likely date of invasion. Government spokespersons explained that it was unlikely to occur sooner because Russian President Vladimir Putin would have been reluctant to unleash his forces while the Beijing Winter Olympics were ongoing, thereby detracting attention from Chinese ally Xi Jinping’s exercise in soft power. ¹ Indeed, citing a ‘Western intelligence report’, journalists were subsequently briefed confidentially that the Chinese government had allegedly requested no invasion until the end of the games. ² Nevertheless, within and without Ukraine’s borders, many found it difficult to comprehend that large-scale conventional warfare could return to Europe in 2022 and chose to downplay the threat. ³ Many others undoubtedly remembered the warnings of ‘intelligence’ on Iraqi weapons of mass destruction in 2002 and 2003, and assumed that this was another example of ambiguous Western intelligence being spun for political ends.