ABSTRACT
Andrey Kortunov, director general of the Russian International Affairs Council, has observed that the ‘stakes in the conflict could hardly be higher. It is about the future of the international system and about the future of the world order. If Ukraine’s forces sustain their strategic momentum and keep Russian forces on the back foot, it is conceivable that an increasingly costly but stable stalemate could open the window for a serious negotiation. The Russia–Ukraine war has already prompted a number of third parties to seek a role in its resolution. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and UN Secretary-General António Guterres, for instance, facilitated the grain-export deal. The diplomatic effects of US–Russia–China tripolarity on Western relationships with the developing world will receive heightened scrutiny, potentially requiring some adjustment in expectations on both sides. The war has placed a spotlight on the leverage of key regional states such as India and Turkey.
