ABSTRACT
The overall dynamics of the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh remained largely unchanged in 2016. Negotiations on conflict resolution were deadlocked. In the first three months of the year, Armenia and Azerbaijan continued to regularly accuse each other of using heavy weaponry and violating the ceasefire along the Line of Contact. In a dramatic escalation, on 2 April fighting broke out in Aghdara, Tartar, Agdam, Khojavend and Fuzuli – territory controlled by the Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Army – before spreading to other areas (the sides blamed each other, but there was little verifiable information on who was responsible). Deteriorating security, armed clashes and exchanges of fire were still a constant feature of the conflict. However, three aspects of the April escalation, which became known as the Four-Day War, were particularly disturbing: the sides’ use of more artillery, tanks and aircraft than at any time since the 1994 ceasefire; shifts in patterns of territorial control; and the number of casualties. The US Department of State estimated that around 200 people were killed during this phase of the escalation. Other sources suggested there were more than 300 fatalities, although these figures could not be independently verified. The hostilities reportedly involved the use of Grad multiple-launch rocket systems. In addition, territory changed hands for the first time since 1994. Azerbaijan gained control of an estimated 800–2,000 hectares along the Line of Contact. Although these gains were not strategically important, they had symbolic significance. Azeri officials claimed a tactical victory – as the first tangible shift in more than two decades, this was a crucial change to emphasise to the Azerbaijani population, especially given that Azerbaijan’s national identity had theretofore been largely defined by defeat.
| Key statistics | 2015 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|
| Conflict intensity: | Low | Low |
| Fatalities: | 60 | 200 |
| New IDPs: | ||
| New refugees: | 1,000 |
