ABSTRACT
In early 2014, cities and towns in Iraq and Syria were falling like dominoes into the hands of the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL. In June that year, the group proclaimed itself a ‘caliphate’, a global ‘Islamic state’, dropping ‘Iraq’ and ‘the Levant’ from its name. However, the size of the territory controlled by ISIS peaked before the group celebrated its first anniversary. During its winning streak, ISIS held to a narrative that claimed that its tamkin (territorial strength) was a product of wa’du Allah (God’s Promise); its deeds were such that this narrative appeared plausible to many. Yet as it began to incur losses, the group modified its narrative, promising – or, perhaps, praying for – a return to tamkin. As such, it has struggled to deliver on the propaganda of the (divine) deed that marked its claim to legitimacy as it expanded. Moreover, territorial losses are having a negative impact on the flow of foreign fighters joining the group, while eroding its online empire. Although the jihadist rivals of ISIS are savouring the opportunity to ridicule its early claims of divine legitimacy, they are not gaining from the group’s change of fortune. In Syria, these rival groups have failed to form a unified front against the regime: in early 2017, they began to turn their guns on one another, possibly paving their path towards self-destruction.
