ABSTRACT
This chapter examines the stability of cyber insecurity, using theories of irregular violence to explain seemingly deliberate strategies of protraction by conflict participants. The logic of protraction, a deliberate choice to extend the duration of conflict or violence while limiting its intensity, holds well in cyberspace. Actors seeking benefit through the exploitation of digital systems see lower costs of action during periods of insecurity, limiting reputational harm or risk of retaliation relative to otherwise stable or “peaceful” periods. This approach to explaining the puzzling stability of insecurity in cyberspace provides a compelling explanation based on human and organizational behavior rather than the unique technical qualities of cyberspace. Stable insecurity provides the opportunity for conflict participants to benefit, raising the threshold for response to espionage incidents and lowering the likelihood of direct intervention from substantially more capable actors such as military forces. This chapter presents an explanation for the stability of cyber insecurity and an alternative to much more frequent debates over the nature and character of escalation in cyberspace. By further integrating a closely related type of conflict and the rich body of scholarship on irregular violence, this chapter also works to enlarge the body of available theory for both scholars and practitioners of cybersecurity and conflict.
