ABSTRACT
Predictions of Israeli politics are notoriously perilous, but a broad consensus anticipates a major political reckoning after the current war, precipitated by Hamas’s historic 7 October attack, ends. The public appears to be tired of Netanyahu’s highoctane partisanship and the low performance and accountability of Likud governments in recent years, and desirous of more responsible, unifying and centrist governance. Israel’s most basic demand in any peace negotiation has always been for essentially ironclad security arrangements. The conclusive demise of Palestinians’ hopes for an independent state is a likely consequence of Hamas’s attack and the ensuing war. Palestinians are among the highest per capita recipients of international aid. US–Israeli relations have been marked by strategic cooperation of unprecedented depth and scope. The war has demonstrated Israel’s heavy depend-ence on the US even in scenarios that are considered far less than existential, and thus the importance of adopting policies and measures that meet with American approval and counter percolating American discontent.
