ABSTRACT
Sri Lanka has long and deep civilisational ties to both the Indian subcontinent and China, with historical chronicles presenting both positive and negative outcomes of relations with both. These narratives loom large in how post-colonial Sri Lanka balanced its interest vis-à-vis the two Asian giants, with world historic periods such as the Cold War, Sino-Soviet Split, American Unipolar Hegemony, and the emerging multipolarity all shaping how India-China competition for influence plays out in Sri Lanka, and how Sri Lankans themselves view their relations with these countries in cost-benefit terms. Often neglected in these grand narratives of civilisational ties and post-colonial nationalisms are the practicalities of economic interests, which we argue is a base factor for Sri Lanka in terms of how India-China competition for influence in Sri Lanka has played out.
The first part of the chapter provides a brief overview of the evolution of Sri Lanka's ties with both India and China. We explain Sri Lanka's ambiguous relationship to India, as highlighted in foundational myths and national chronicles like the Mahavamsa, which trace Sinhalese bloodline and the Buddhist religion to India, while also warning of the existential threat of expansionary South Indian empires. We explain also the dynamic post-colonial period, and how national liberation struggles, the Sino-Soviet split, the Sino-Indian war, and Sri Lanka's civil war all helped shape the Sri Lankan nationalist narrative of the country's relationship with India and China. The second part of this chapter provides a high-level comparative view of the economic structures of Sri Lanka, India, and China. This section seeks to explain Sri Lanka's own economic deficiencies and why China, rather than India has emerged as the primary sponsor of Sri Lanka's economic development in recent decades. We explain that simple economic interest, beyond just anti-Indian resentment drive Sri Lanka's post-war relations with China. Section four recounts and analyses developments since 2019, when Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa was elected to power, in what many foreign policy pundits described as a win for Chinese influence. We track the turbulent sequence of events that led to a foreign policy coup in favor of India, and explain the broader geopolitical and economic context.
